In deep blue Durham County, the number of unaffiliated voters has exploded over the past decade. The group has grown at a rate 7.5 times faster than registered Democrats, even as Durham’s electoral results keep getting bluer.
As Election Day approaches, Democrats are eyeing this growing group with a key question: Will Durham’s unaffiliated voters continue to vote Democratic? Steve Rawson, chair of the Durham County Democratic Party, said Durham’s unaffiliated voters are essential to his party’s aim to flip North Carolina for the first time since 2008:
“Every single vote matters and Durham is very likely to be the difference in North Carolina turning blue,” Rawson said.
As of Oct. 31, Durham’s 128,154 Democrats still outnumber other voting groups, followed by unaffiliated voters at 96,777 and Republicans at 24,033. But the growth of unaffiliated voters in Durham mirrors trends across the state, where those voters now outnumber members of the two major parties. Across North Carolina, unaffiliated voters are more likely to be younger and white, and the range of political opinions they represent makes them an important part of any winning electoral coalition.
Some Durhamites have been unaffiliated their whole lives. Eric Baker, 40, considers himself “fairly progressive,” but believes the two-party system contributes to the tribalization of politics.
He’s suspicious of any attempt to recruit him to the Democratic Party. “How does that serve a functional purpose? I don’t want to waste my time to make a party look better,” Baker said.
There are also more recent converts. Lexi Terezakis, 27, had long been disillusioned by the Democratic Party’s centrism. A recent arrival in Durham, she disaffiliated from the party over its lack of action on the war in Gaza.
“Nobody’s advocating against genocide. I completely lost faith in the party,” Terezakis said.
However, both Rawson and Terezakis plan to vote up and down the ballot for Democrats this election cycle and have consistently voted for Democrats in the past. Duke professor Mac McCorkle describes this type of voter as a “shadow partisan” — an unaffiliated voter who nevertheless can be depended upon to vote consistently Republican or Democratic.
“Very few unaffiliated voters are truly independent,” said McCorkle.
In Durham County, many of those unaffiliated voters consistently vote Democratic. Since 2014, the share of Durhamite votes captured by state-wide Democratic candidates has grown by over 10%.
However, not all unaffiliated Durham voters are liberal. Courtney Geels, the local Republican Party chair, has spoken with many unaffiliated voters who identify as conservatives.
“Durham is also a very progressive place,” she added. “You’d have to be pretty bold to register as a Republican.”
McCorkle believes younger people will continue to disaffiliate from the major parties at higher rates until both parties nominate younger candidates.
“At some point, there’s a reckoning here,” he said. “Younger unaffiliated voters are clearly a problem.”
Until that reckoning comes, both parties will continue courting unaffiliated voters. Geels and her colleagues are pushing for local conservatives to re-register as Republicans. Rawson and the Durham Democrats are intentionally canvassing at the doors of unaffiliated voters. He thinks many are either persuadable or reliably Democratic voters, but less engaged and enthused than the average Democrat.
“The question isn’t who they are voting for, but are they going to vote?”
Above: Voters cast ballots during early voting at Karsh Alumni Center. Photo by Kulsoom Rizavi — The 9th Street Journal
