{"id":4562,"date":"2020-11-06T10:02:35","date_gmt":"2020-11-06T10:02:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/?p=4562"},"modified":"2023-03-27T15:52:48","modified_gmt":"2023-03-27T15:52:48","slug":"analysis-in-senate-race-text-messages-made-the-difference","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/2020\/11\/06\/analysis-in-senate-race-text-messages-made-the-difference\/","title":{"rendered":"Analysis: In Senate race, text messages made the difference"},"content":{"rendered":"

Update: This story has been updated to note that Cunningham conceded on Nov. 10.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

The texts were far from salacious \u2014 they sounded like messages from a nerdy college kid \u2014 but they probably cost Cal Cunningham a Senate seat.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Heading into Tuesday, most polls showed him with a single-digit edge over Republican incumbent Thom Tillis, just like they had for the entire campaign. Even Republican strategists thought Cunningham would win, said Jessica Taylor, the Senate and governors editor for The Cook Political Report.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

But the messages and their ripple effect shifted the dynamic in the most expensive congressional race in U.S. history. According to the North Carolina State Board of Elections tally on Nov. 9, Tillis won 2,641,979 votes to 2,546,241 for Cunningham. The Democrat conceded on Nov. 10.<\/span><\/p>\n

There surely were other factors that contributed to Cunningham\u2019s defeat, including high turnout among Republicans and a boost for Tillis by Trump. And the polls that consistently showed a Cunningham lead may have been wrong all along.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Still, the biggest factor was the late-breaking scandal that zapped the Democrat\u2019s momentum and shattered his carefully curated image.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

After the conservative site NationalFile.com broke the news on Oct. 2 and The Associated Press confirmed Cunningham had an affair, his campaign went dark. The candidate cancelled events and avoided exposure to the media, leaving a vacuum quickly filled by Republican attack ads and calls from Tillis for Cunningham to come clean.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cCunningham turned down the volume on his campaign, whereas Tillis kept it at a very high volume,\u201d said Chris Cooper, professor of political science and public affairs at Western Carolina University. \u201cHe didn\u2019t close very strong.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The slow-motion strategy continued to Election Day: Cunningham dodged reporters and held limited events while Tillis crisscrossed the state.<\/span><\/p>\n

Case in point: Cunningham visited Jackson County, and didn\u2019t publicize his visit or alert the media, Cooper said.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThis is the middle of damn nowhere,\u201d he said. \u201cCal Cunningham was across the street, and I didn\u2019t even know it.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The scandal also undermined the Democrat\u2019s image as a clean-cut Army veteran who would tackle corruption in Washington. Ads about his honorable character and Bronze Star Medal felt hollow after the Army Reserve began investigating his affair.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

This likely turned off some swing voters, particularly white suburban women, said Carter Wrenn, a North Carolina political consultant and columnist.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Exit polls showed Tillis fared better than expected with white college-educated women, a sign that the scandal may have hurt Cunningham with a key voting bloc.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWhat was up at the end? There were swing voters, and I expect the scandal itself hurt him in the fact that it made him look phony,\u201d Wrenn said.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cHe ran as a Boy Scout, and it turned out he wasn\u2019t one.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Update: This story has been updated to note that Cunningham conceded on Nov. 10. The texts were far from salacious \u2014 they sounded like messages…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4292,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[48,135,272],"class_list":["post-4562","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-cal-cunningham","tag-election-2020","tag-thom-tillis","entry"],"yoast_head":"\nAnalysis: In Senate race, text messages made the difference - 9th Street Journal<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The messages weren't very spicy, but they were costly. \u201cHe ran as a Boy Scout," said one analyst, "and it turned out he wasn\u2019t one.\u201d\u00a0\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/2020\/11\/06\/analysis-in-senate-race-text-messages-made-the-difference\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Analysis: In Senate race, text messages made the difference - 9th Street Journal\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The messages weren't very spicy, but they were costly. \u201cHe ran as a Boy Scout," said one analyst, "and it turned out he wasn\u2019t one.\u201d\u00a0\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/2020\/11\/06\/analysis-in-senate-race-text-messages-made-the-difference\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"9th Street Journal\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-11-06T10:02:35+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-03-27T15:52:48+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/Cal-Cunningham-text.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1600\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"907\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Chris Kuo\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Chris Kuo\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/2020\/11\/06\/analysis-in-senate-race-text-messages-made-the-difference\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/2020\/11\/06\/analysis-in-senate-race-text-messages-made-the-difference\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Chris Kuo\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/#\/schema\/person\/915eb670c76ba64d4177f332f818a5e6\"},\"headline\":\"Analysis: In Senate race, text messages made the difference\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-11-06T10:02:35+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-03-27T15:52:48+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/2020\/11\/06\/analysis-in-senate-race-text-messages-made-the-difference\/\"},\"wordCount\":468,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/2020\/11\/06\/analysis-in-senate-race-text-messages-made-the-difference\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/Cal-Cunningham-text.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Cal Cunningham\",\"Election 2020\",\"Thom Tillis\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/2020\/11\/06\/analysis-in-senate-race-text-messages-made-the-difference\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/2020\/11\/06\/analysis-in-senate-race-text-messages-made-the-difference\/\",\"name\":\"Analysis: In Senate race, text messages made the difference - 9th Street Journal\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/2020\/11\/06\/analysis-in-senate-race-text-messages-made-the-difference\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/2020\/11\/06\/analysis-in-senate-race-text-messages-made-the-difference\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/Cal-Cunningham-text.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-11-06T10:02:35+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-03-27T15:52:48+00:00\",\"description\":\"The messages weren't very spicy, but they were costly. \u201cHe ran as a Boy Scout,\\\" said one analyst, \\\"and it turned out he wasn\u2019t one.\u201d\u00a0\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/2020\/11\/06\/analysis-in-senate-race-text-messages-made-the-difference\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/2020\/11\/06\/analysis-in-senate-race-text-messages-made-the-difference\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/2020\/11\/06\/analysis-in-senate-race-text-messages-made-the-difference\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/Cal-Cunningham-text.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/Cal-Cunningham-text.jpg\",\"width\":1600,\"height\":907,\"caption\":\"screenshots show flirtatious text messages exchanged between Democratic Senate candidate Cal Cunningham and Arlene Guzman Todd, shared by NationalFile.com.\u00a0\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/2020\/11\/06\/analysis-in-senate-race-text-messages-made-the-difference\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Analysis: In Senate race, text messages made the difference\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/\",\"name\":\"9th Street Journal\",\"description\":\"We cover Durham (and North Carolina politics)\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/#organization\",\"name\":\"9th Street Journal\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2018\/09\/9th-Street-Journal-Logo-cropped.jpeg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2018\/09\/9th-Street-Journal-Logo-cropped.jpeg\",\"width\":869,\"height\":104,\"caption\":\"9th Street Journal\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"}},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/#\/schema\/person\/915eb670c76ba64d4177f332f818a5e6\",\"name\":\"Chris Kuo\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/b40ad7ab5701475a1bbfbac9eb4f0ce8?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/b40ad7ab5701475a1bbfbac9eb4f0ce8?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Chris Kuo\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/author\/chris-kuo\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Analysis: In Senate race, text messages made the difference - 9th Street Journal","description":"The messages weren't very spicy, but they were costly. \u201cHe ran as a Boy Scout,\" said one analyst, \"and it turned out he wasn\u2019t one.\u201d\u00a0","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/2020\/11\/06\/analysis-in-senate-race-text-messages-made-the-difference\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Analysis: In Senate race, text messages made the difference - 9th Street Journal","og_description":"The messages weren't very spicy, but they were costly. \u201cHe ran as a Boy Scout,\" said one analyst, \"and it turned out he wasn\u2019t one.\u201d\u00a0","og_url":"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/2020\/11\/06\/analysis-in-senate-race-text-messages-made-the-difference\/","og_site_name":"9th Street Journal","article_published_time":"2020-11-06T10:02:35+00:00","article_modified_time":"2023-03-27T15:52:48+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1600,"height":907,"url":"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/Cal-Cunningham-text.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Chris Kuo","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Chris Kuo","Est. reading time":"2 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/2020\/11\/06\/analysis-in-senate-race-text-messages-made-the-difference\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/2020\/11\/06\/analysis-in-senate-race-text-messages-made-the-difference\/"},"author":{"name":"Chris Kuo","@id":"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/#\/schema\/person\/915eb670c76ba64d4177f332f818a5e6"},"headline":"Analysis: In Senate race, text messages made the difference","datePublished":"2020-11-06T10:02:35+00:00","dateModified":"2023-03-27T15:52:48+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/2020\/11\/06\/analysis-in-senate-race-text-messages-made-the-difference\/"},"wordCount":468,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/2020\/11\/06\/analysis-in-senate-race-text-messages-made-the-difference\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/Cal-Cunningham-text.jpg","keywords":["Cal Cunningham","Election 2020","Thom Tillis"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/2020\/11\/06\/analysis-in-senate-race-text-messages-made-the-difference\/","url":"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/2020\/11\/06\/analysis-in-senate-race-text-messages-made-the-difference\/","name":"Analysis: In Senate race, text messages made the difference - 9th Street Journal","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/2020\/11\/06\/analysis-in-senate-race-text-messages-made-the-difference\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/2020\/11\/06\/analysis-in-senate-race-text-messages-made-the-difference\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/Cal-Cunningham-text.jpg","datePublished":"2020-11-06T10:02:35+00:00","dateModified":"2023-03-27T15:52:48+00:00","description":"The messages weren't very spicy, but they were costly. \u201cHe ran as a Boy Scout,\" said one analyst, \"and it turned out he wasn\u2019t one.\u201d\u00a0","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/2020\/11\/06\/analysis-in-senate-race-text-messages-made-the-difference\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/2020\/11\/06\/analysis-in-senate-race-text-messages-made-the-difference\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/2020\/11\/06\/analysis-in-senate-race-text-messages-made-the-difference\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/Cal-Cunningham-text.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/Cal-Cunningham-text.jpg","width":1600,"height":907,"caption":"screenshots show flirtatious text messages exchanged between Democratic Senate candidate Cal Cunningham and Arlene Guzman Todd, shared by NationalFile.com.\u00a0"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/2020\/11\/06\/analysis-in-senate-race-text-messages-made-the-difference\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Analysis: In Senate race, text messages made the difference"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/#website","url":"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/","name":"9th Street Journal","description":"We cover Durham (and North Carolina politics)","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/#organization","name":"9th Street Journal","url":"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2018\/09\/9th-Street-Journal-Logo-cropped.jpeg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2018\/09\/9th-Street-Journal-Logo-cropped.jpeg","width":869,"height":104,"caption":"9th Street Journal"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"}},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/#\/schema\/person\/915eb670c76ba64d4177f332f818a5e6","name":"Chris Kuo","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/b40ad7ab5701475a1bbfbac9eb4f0ce8?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/b40ad7ab5701475a1bbfbac9eb4f0ce8?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Chris Kuo"},"url":"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/author\/chris-kuo\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4562"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4562"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4562\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4292"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4562"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4562"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4562"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}