{"id":4291,"date":"2020-10-16T18:17:02","date_gmt":"2020-10-16T18:17:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/?p=4291"},"modified":"2023-03-27T15:52:48","modified_gmt":"2023-03-27T15:52:48","slug":"analysis-nc-senate-race-offers-window-into-world-of-oppo-research","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/2020\/10\/16\/analysis-nc-senate-race-offers-window-into-world-of-oppo-research\/","title":{"rendered":"Analysis: NC Senate race offers window into world of oppo research"},"content":{"rendered":"

They\u2019re sleuths, professional scandal-hunters. They target senators, presidents, politicians of all stripes, unearthing past gaffes and present improprieties. If there\u2019s dirt, they\u2019ll find it.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

They are opposition researchers, people who assemble negative information, or \u201coppo,\u201d about political candidates for their clients. If the oppo is spicy enough, it can dominate headlines and define a campaign.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

And lately, they appear to be all over the North Carolina Senate race, where everyone seems to be dumping oppo.<\/span><\/p>\n

On Oct. 7, the website American Ledger released a <\/span>story<\/span><\/a> with divorce filings showing that the ex-wife of Republican incumbent Thom Tillis alleged \u201ccruel and inhuman treatment\u201d by Tillis and that living with him would be \u201cunsafe and improper.\u201d American Ledger is paid for by American Bridge 21st Century, a Democratic super PAC often involved in oppo research.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The oppo dump was likely an attempt to steer the race\u2019s narrative away from Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham\u2019s recently uncovered extra-marital affair.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

On Oct. 2, the conservative media outlet NationalFile.com posted screenshots of flirtatious text messages exchanged between Cunningham and Arlene Guzman Todd, a public relations consultant in California.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Later that night, Cunningham admitted to sending the texts. The Associated Press eventually <\/span>confirmed<\/span><\/a> that Cunningham had an in-person sexual encounter with Todd in July.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Was this a juicy find by Republican oppo researchers? Patrick Howley, the reporter who broke the story, insists it wasn\u2019t.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cI obtained these screenshots from a concerned citizen, NOT through opposition research,\u201d Howley wrote in an email.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

But a veteran Washington journalist who wrote a novel about oppo says the episode has the hallmarks of dirt dug up by a shrewd investigator.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cYou\u2019ll never have proof because they’re not going to name their sources necessarily, but it certainly has all the classic footprints of oppo research,\u201d said Tom Rosenstiel, author of \u201cOppo.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIf it walks like a duck and it quacks like a duck, it\u2019s probably a duck,\u201d he said. \u201cAn oppo duck.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Making the sausage<\/h2>\n

For all its notoriety, oppo research begins with the mundane: combing through mounds of information to assemble a profile of a candidate.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The oppo \u201cchecklist\u201d includes tax records, voting histories, business ventures, personal details, divorce proceedings, lawsuits \u2014 anything that could be incriminating, said Alan Huffman, an investigative journalist turned oppo researcher who has delved into the lives of over 100 candidates.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cEven though you\u2019re a hired gun as an opposition researcher, your methods, if you\u2019re doing it properly, are exactly the same as they would be if you were an investigative reporter,\u201d Huffman said.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In addition to targeting opposing candidates, Huffman also digs up dirt on his own clients, allowing them to anticipate attacks.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cYou look at them with basically the same sort of unjaundiced eye. [It] doesn\u2019t really win you a lot of friends within your own campaign,\u201d he chuckled.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

With the oppo assembled, the client \u2014 which could be a campaign, a PAC, a political party or any other independent group \u2014 decides the what, when and how of the release.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Gary Pearce, who served as a senior advisor to former Gov. Jim Hunt, said that he would rely on four categories of information when consulting: the 10 best things about his client, the 10 worst things about his client, the 10 best things about the opposing candidate and the 10 worst things about that candidate.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cAnd then I want to take those 40 things, and I want to test them all in some polls. And I want to find out what works,\u201d he said. \u201cAnd that\u2019s what we\u2019re gonna focus on in the campaign.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

But after the release, the oppo doesn\u2019t always work as intended.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cYou never know how it\u2019s going to play … sometimes we\u2019ll find something that seems like a total deal-breaker and nobody cares,\u201d Huffman said. \u201cAnd then sometimes something seems almost inconsequential, and then it gets a life of its own and develops this whole ecosystem and dominates the race.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In an era of heightened polarization and changing sexual mores, sexual scandals may not carry as much umph as before. The latest <\/span>polls<\/span><\/a> still show Cunningham with a slim lead over Tillis.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

And North Carolina voters may be less squeamish than most.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cNorth Carolina voters are probably the world\u2019s greatest experts in negative advertising,\u201d Pearce said. \u201cThey have seen it for like 40 years. \u2026 It is really hard to penetrate their defenses. They have really got up bullshit shields.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The Wild West<\/h2>\n

Detecting oppo can be difficult, since media organizations will rarely admit that it was their source. Still, there are clues.<\/span><\/p>\n

When a fringe news organization publishes information that would have required a high level of expertise to extract, that\u2019s a sign, Rosenstiel said.<\/span><\/p>\n

Other clues can be found in the way the information is released. Campaigns will often delay the release of oppo until a moment in the campaign cycle when it could have the most impact \u2014 a salacious October surprise.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Campaigns also rarely publish oppo on their own sites, preferring to leak it to a sympathetic media organization. Think American Ledger, or NationalFile.com.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe goal of opposition research is to ultimately change the narrative of the race by distracting your opponent and making them have to respond to your opposition research,\u201d Rosenstiel said. \u201cAnd the best way to do that is to leak it to a friendly news operation that publishes it.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

This process has accelerated with the partisan splintering of the media world and the proliferation of online outlets. As \u201cquasi extensions of the party,\u201d these media sites are perfect places to dump oppo, Rosenstiel said.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cOur media ecosystem has become the Wild West. It\u2019s filled with news organizations that are not really news organizations. It\u2019s filled with partisan websites. It\u2019s filled with places that are financed by political operatives.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The Internet has changed oppo work in other ways, too. In a matter of minutes, false information about candidates can flit across Twitter and Facebook, feeding off likes, shares and retweets \u2014 \u201cviral before it\u2019s even vetted,\u201d Huffman said.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

This complicates the work of oppo researchers. After all, who needs to hunt for evidence when a doctored video can suffice?<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cI feel like that has, in some ways, made opposition research obsolete, because it\u2019s a total work around,\u201d Huffman said. \u201cYou don\u2019t have to have the facts in order to undertake character assassination.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

At top, screenshots show flirtatious text messages exchanged between Democratic Senate candidate Cal Cunningham a<\/i><\/b>nd <\/i>Arlene Guzman Todd,<\/i><\/strong> shared by NationalFile.com.\u00a0<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

They\u2019re sleuths, professional scandal-hunters. They target senators, presidents, politicians of all stripes, unearthing past gaffes and present improprieties. If there\u2019s dirt, they\u2019ll find it.\u00a0 They…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4292,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[19,48,135,272,279,281],"class_list":["post-4291","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-2020-election","tag-cal-cunningham","tag-election-2020","tag-thom-tillis","tag-u-s-congress","tag-u-s-senate","entry"],"yoast_head":"\nAnalysis: NC Senate race offers window into world of oppo research<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/2020\/10\/16\/analysis-nc-senate-race-offers-window-into-world-of-oppo-research\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Analysis: NC Senate race offers window into world of oppo research\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"They\u2019re sleuths, professional scandal-hunters. 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