{"id":113,"date":"2018-09-10T17:44:37","date_gmt":"2018-09-10T17:44:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sites.duke.edu\/9thstreetjournal\/?p=113"},"modified":"2023-03-27T15:51:10","modified_gmt":"2023-03-27T15:51:10","slug":"whats-driving-durhams-drop-in-crime","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/9thstreetjournal.org\/2018\/09\/10\/whats-driving-durhams-drop-in-crime\/","title":{"rendered":"What\u2019s driving the city’s drop in crime?"},"content":{"rendered":"

At a meeting last month, City Council members heaped praise on Durham Police Chief Cerelyn \u201cC.J.\u201d Davis for a dramatic drop in violent crime.<\/span><\/p>\n

Durham Mayor Steve Schewel interrupted her presentation to express his glee.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cI want everybody in this room and everybody who\u2019s watching this at home to wrap their mind just for a minute around that 28 percent figure,\u201d Schewel said. \u201cThat is a big number. I just want to congratulate you.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Davis attributed the drop to the department\u2019s focus on more uniformed police on patrol, an emphasis on catching repeat criminals, more coordination with prosecutors and better engagement in the community.<\/span><\/p>\n

But she left out what criminologists say is probably the biggest factor. <\/span><\/p>\n

N.C. State criminologist James Brunet said the biggest influence in the drop in crime isn\u2019t about cops or uniforms: it\u2019s a decline in poverty.<\/span><\/p>\n

And Durham\u2019s good news came with an asterisk: Although robberies declined by 36 percent and aggravated assaults fell by 25 percent, homicides rose from 10 in the first six months of 2017 to 14 in the same period this year.<\/span><\/p>\n

Durham police said they did not think the rise in homicides indicated a concerning long-term trend, noting that last year\u2019s mark of 10 killings was a particularly difficult figure to beat after it fell from 21 homicides in the first half of 2016. Brunet cautioned against reading too much into quarterly statistics when the numbers are small, but acknowledged that poverty\u2019s effect on different crime categories can vary.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIn the worst situation, you could have a shooting situation, a domestic violence situation where three or four individuals are killed, and that could really move the quarterly numbers pretty significantly, but it\u2019s not indicative of the public safety within a city,\u201d Brunet said. \u201cThe factors that lead to those different types of crimes are very different, like an assault versus a drug homicide.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Criminologist Barry Latzer wrote in an <\/span>analysis<\/span><\/a> in the Daily Beast last October that crimes like murder are quarrel-based, stemming from anger or gun-fueled disputes. Robberies are often more correlated with economic factors, when poor people resort to stealing money and property by force out of desperation. And Durham\u2019s poorest residents are often being pushed out by the rapid redevelopment of the city.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Herald-Sun <\/span>reported<\/span><\/a> this year that the median household income in Durham County has increased 8.1 percent since 2010, and it has risen by more than 40 percent in six of the county\u2019s 60 census tracts. As home prices and rents have soared, people who could no longer afford to live in Durham may have moved to poorer neighboring areas like Person County to the north and Chatham County to the south.<\/span><\/p>\n

Cities in those counties have not been as fortunate with the direction of their recent crime rates. Lieutenant Shorty Johnson said the Pittsboro Police Department had nine violent crimes in 2017 and has seen seven through the start of September this year, on a similar pace for the full year. Roxboro does not differentiate between violent crime and property crime and does not track quarterly statistics, but total crime in the town rose nearly 10 percent from 2016 to 2017.<\/span><\/p>\n

But even if the economy is the driving force in the declining crime rate, Brunet said police may deserve a little bit of the credit. He noted that police initiatives in community support have been shown to have a measurable impact in cities like High Point, N.C., and Boston, Mass., and may have contributed to some of the drop in Durham.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cPolice can have a role in curtailing crime. It may not be the most important factor. Poverty and other conditions would be more prevailing,\u201d Brunet said. \u201cBut if they\u2019re instituting a new program that\u2019s directed at gang violence, that could potentially impact violent crime rates.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Davis revealed that a new community engagement unit assigning 10 officers to McDougald Terrace this year helped cause a 62.5 percent drop in violent crime in the southern Durham public housing complex. The officers in the unit hosted a community clean-up event to increase visibility, and they also ran safety education programs and intervention initiatives.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cSometimes you hit a sweet spot,\u201d Davis told the City Council. \u201cOfficers have been remaining vigilant and visible.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Councilmember Mark-Anthony Middleton asked Davis how to replicate that unit and assumed the answer would be more money and staff. Davis pushed back on his cynicism.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cI don\u2019t think it\u2019s money,\u201d she said. \u201cIt\u2019s individuals that know how important it is to have good relationships with the community members that live there and those little kids that live in that community, who in another five to 10 years will be adults and have some impression of who police are.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

At a meeting last month, City Council members heaped praise on Durham Police Chief Cerelyn \u201cC.J.\u201d Davis for a dramatic drop in violent crime. 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